Political End Game--High Stakes Poker

OPINION

(05/01/2009) Minnesota House and Senate Democrats lose bargaining chip points everyday between May 1, 2009 and May 18,2009 that they delay finalizing the Tax Bill Conference Committee report, passing both bodies, and an actual presentment to Governor Tim Pawlenty. My theory is they loose bargaining chip points because everyday that goes by will diminish the number of days remaining for true negotiation between the legislature and the Governor.

Quite honestly both the Minnesota House and Minnesota Senate moved quickly to pass Tax Bills that they knew would be largely unacceptable to the Governor. What is likely to emerge from conference committee will be a hybrid of the two bills which will still be--unacceptable!

Leaving very few days left for negotiation might be a risky strategy. Facing a certain veto and very little chance at a House Majority for override (never say never), the DFL is attempting to force the Governor into a corner faced with the choice between his political ambitions (approval rating), a timely end to session (not likely), and tax increases (Taxpayers League Pledge).

However, while the House and Senate DFL have no political downside to forcing a "extra innings," because they are not up for election this year, the Governor presumably does have some downsides to such an occurrence. Yet, the relationship is not completely 1:1. That is a Governor's action to defeat anything is a strong Chief Executive action and it only bolsters his case and his ability to step up on to a political soapbox no matter what the issues let alone tax increases on all Minnesotans!

Yet after May 18, 2009. Should a special session be called, every day that passes could be dangerous for the Governor. Nobody wants an extended session. Plus it will be easier to blame the Governor (one person) than the entire legislature (spread the blame around). So Pawlenty's approval rating could get a positive bump out a Tax Increase Veto but it will fade relatively quickly as quick end to special session cannot be reached. Remember people have became saturated (fed up) with the extend Norm Coleman v. Franken debacle and have no further appetite for further ineptitude from elected officials including an extended Special Session with no end in sight.

Of course, the Governor does not need to call a special session and the legislature itself does not have the authority to convene themselves. The Governor reserves the ability to use unallotment as he did in previous budget years and most recently during December 2008 to balance out the previous budget years. Being forced to dismantle state government agencies budgets by himself could damaging as well.

The DFL will not come unscathed either. Governor Pawlenty is a skilled political tactitioner and should he be forced to unallot he has total control over which agencies take the biggest whack. Two prime targets would be K-12 and HHS. Less likely to whack k-12, since he proposed 2% increases, he would likely go after HHS and would draw 'all the usual suspects' in their outrage and complaint (Sen. Berglin) and the HHS pro-entitlement program communities. However, this plays well to his conservative base, who already believe government is 'bloated' in this area.

Moreover, House and Senate Omnibus bills, 13 or so, have all set their funding to targets achieved only by filling $1.5 and $2 Billion gaps 'new revenue' gaps. So if they are not successful in securing that funding in the tax bill then all the other omnibus (program) bills will suffer.

Conclusion, the Minnesota House,Senate, and Governor are engaged in a high stakes game of poker where political showmanship, political will, scoring points with the electorate is just as much a goal as balancing the budget.

My prediction. No side will come out unscathed and odds at State Level Tax increases are at less than 25% likely. Sin taxes are running well above average and non-tax revenue (fees), where available, whoa...look out!